Housing Needs Assessment

The City St. John’s has finalized its 2023 Housing Needs Assessment. The research and report was completed by real estate consulting firm Turner Drake, in partnership with David Harrison and Upland Planning.

Research consisted of three main components:

• Quantitative analysis of our current housing supply and needs, including projections up to 2028 and 2033.
• Qualitative research with residents via a public survey that was available online and at clinics offered at the Gathering Place and Centre for Hope.
• An update of the City’s non-market housing inventory.

The following is a highlight of key findings:

• Population projection in the mid-level scenario anticipate a 5% population growth between 2023-2028 and a further 3% growth between 2028-2033, with continued growth in seniors' cohorts as well as noteworthy growth for 25-to-44-year-olds.
• For the mid-level projection scenario, households are anticipated to increase by 6% between 2023-2028 and 4% between 2028-2033. Continued growth in seniors' cohorts is expected with noteworthy growth in the 25-to-44-year-old cohort.
• The cost of construction for apartment buildings of fewer than 5 storeys, row houses, and single-detached dwellings all increased by approximately 55% between 2017 and 2022.
• St. John's median income increased from $70,000 to $75,500, or approximately 8%, since 2016. With the inclusion of 2020 CERB payments, 2021 median incomes should be considered to be inflated.
• Median rents saw their largest increases between 2010 and 2016, with slight decreases between 2016 and 2019 related to increases in primary rental market vacancies. Rents have seen recent increases, with an 8% overall increase in median rents between 2019 and 2022 as vacancy rates have reduced.
• There have been overall increases in households living in inadequate (11%) and unsuitable (22%) conditions and an overall decrease in those living in unaffordable (8%) conditions. Once increases / decreases are taken into account, the total households affected by respective criteria (in the order given above) translate to 2,360, 1,205, and 9,695.
• Renters have the highest rate of unaffordability at 32% – roughly 5,895 households – despite a 13% decrease between 2016 and 2021.
• Both core housing need and deep unaffordability saw overall decreases at 15% and 17%, respectively. Notwithstanding, 22% of renters (4,125 households) remain in core need and 11% (2,035 households) currently live in deeply unaffordable dwellings.
• Using the mid-level population projections, there is an estimated housing shortage of 1,110 units as of 2023. This shortage is estimated to increase to 3,080 units by 2028 and 4,315 by 2033.
• Based on mid-level demand projections, the total number of required units (including the 2023 shortage) by 2028 is estimated to be 4,335 and 6,825 by 2033.

Key recommendations from the report include:

• Deepen and explore new partnerships with non-market housing providers.
• Explore data partnerships and prepare data communication tools.
• Educate residents about local housing needs.
• Promote and protect market housing affordability.
• Track and promote the non-market housing inventory.

Take the Public Survey and tell us about the needs of your household and how your current housing is or isn’t meeting your needs. The survey asks about housing affordability, availability and suitability, as well as your overall satisfaction with your housing and your future aspirations.

The results from this survey will be used to inform the Housing Needs Assessment Report to be released in June 2023.

The survey takes approximately 10 minutes and is completely anonymous.

The survey will close on Sunday, April 30th.

To take the survey visit: https://www.surveymonkey.ca/r/StJohnsHNA